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Question Powerball

9 years 3 months ago #1 by Kristin Darken
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    • So... I have enough math and logic background that I tend not to gamble or play the lottery. I'm also generally not 'lucky' when it comes to money/material prizes. I've seen and done some amazingly ridiculous mind-boggling things where luck (or supernatural influences) are pretty much the only explanation.. but the moment money is on the table, it's off completely. I have sat around playing poker with friends and put hand after hand of straight, flush, four of a kind, and so forth onto the table... when the pot was made up of the Halloween candy we were passing out at the door, or potato chips and other party snacks. But put a couple pennies in the pot and it'll take all night for me to pull even a face-card pair.

    My grandmother bought lottery tickets daily. She played scratchers. She spent hundreds if not thousands of dollars on the random chance of a big win and celebrated her occasional couple hundred dollars of prizes. On the other hand, I work with a stage manager who rarely plays but once won a 25k dollar prize. So, I acknowledged years ago that if I don't play at all, I'm guaranteed not to win. If I do play, I'm only almost certainly not going to win. So I don't typically bother. But when the prize gets high... 150-200 million, high... I throw a dollar or two in the wind to buy a ticket. The other night I happened to notice that the California Powerball was over 400 million. So.. I bought a ticket. No one won... So I bought another ticket for last night's drawing... which at the time looked like it was going to be around 600 million (which would be, literally, the largest lottery prize ever awarded). By the time of the drawing, the prize had grown to almost 900 million. Well, once again, no one won.

    So today, I'm going to take a trip to my convenience store and drop two dollars for another ticket for later this week when they draw for a prize that is currently listed at 1.3 billion dollars. 1.3 billion. There is every possibility that someone who has spent their life working a job knowing that over their lifetime they might earn a million dollars total... will in just one moment's time... become a billionaire.

    And I just want you all to know that if I win... there might be one or two small changes around here. For one, I can think of a couple authors who will be worrying more about sun burn on a Bahama beach than about burning out...
    Fate guard you and grant you a Light to brighten your Way.
    9 years 3 months ago #2 by ~Archangel~
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    • Best of luck I do hope you win, if for no other reason than it would be nice to know someone who won big.
    Many people hear voices when no-one is there.
    Some are called 'mad' and shut up in rooms where they stare at the walls all day.
    Others are called 'writers' and they do pretty much the same thing.
    -Ray Bradbury
    9 years 3 months ago #3 by Valentine
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    • I too will drop $2 on the chance to win a billion*.

    *Billion dollars is not really the prize won.
    Don't Drick and Drive.
    9 years 3 months ago #4 by E M Pisek
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    • Valentine wrote: I too will drop $2 on the chance to win a billion*.

    *Billion dollars is not really the prize won.


    My luck they'll tell me I have to take it all in pennies and have to roll them up myself and turn them into the bank. :P
    What is - was. What was - is.
    9 years 3 months ago #5 by ~Archangel~
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    • Ib12us wrote:

    Valentine wrote: I too will drop $2 on the chance to win a billion*.

    *Billion dollars is not really the prize won.


    My luck they'll tell me I have to take it all in pennies and have to roll them up myself and turn them into the bank. :P


    Well the copper in those pennies is worth more than $0.01 so they gave you a billion in pennies you'd end up with more than a billion dollars of copper, just have to sell it on the metals market. Or go to a mining company and say I've got billion in pennies, how much will you pay me not to glut the copper market and crash your stock. Repeat as needed.
    Many people hear voices when no-one is there.
    Some are called 'mad' and shut up in rooms where they stare at the walls all day.
    Others are called 'writers' and they do pretty much the same thing.
    -Ray Bradbury
    9 years 3 months ago #6 by Jarjaross
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    • If you win the first thing you do is get into contact with an accountant and a lawyer that you trust! Get everything set up so your money will be safe, then you can collect the prize. I forget the numbers but a decent amount of lotery winner blow it in the first few months because they aren't careful with the money.

    Also set up a budget so that a) the money will be earning you more money in safe investments and b) you can live comfortably for the rest of your life.
    My dreams take me to far off lands and times of distant past and future. They tell what has been done, what will happen and who I am. They show me things beyond the machinations of any man. Tell me, what are dreams to you?
    9 years 3 months ago #7 by E M Pisek
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    • That is oh so true and also stay away from gambling if you can. More people blow their money away at casino's thinking that they can win more or so on.

    The numbers are high but with this high amount, a vacation will also be in order as you'll find you have 'new friends, relatives' and schemers trying to get as much money from you as possible. Me, I'll buy an island with sharks and all. Of course I won't live there. Just have the mail delivered there. :P
    What is - was. What was - is.
    9 years 3 months ago #8 by Valentine
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    • Jarjaross wrote: If you win the first thing you do is get into contact with an accountant and a lawyer that you trust! Get everything set up so your money will be safe, then you can collect the prize. I forget the numbers but a decent amount of lotery winner blow it in the first few months because they aren't careful with the money.

    Also set up a budget so that a) the money will be earning you more money in safe investments and b) you can live comfortably for the rest of your life.


    No, the first thing I do is call my immediate family and tell them we are rich. The we find the accountant and lawyer and such.
    Don't Drick and Drive.
    9 years 3 months ago #9 by Jarjaross
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    • That's generally not as good of an idea as you might think. You want to keep as much of a lid on the fact that you won as possible until everything's set up.
    My dreams take me to far off lands and times of distant past and future. They tell what has been done, what will happen and who I am. They show me things beyond the machinations of any man. Tell me, what are dreams to you?
    9 years 3 months ago #10 by Astrodragon
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    • Ib12us wrote:

    Valentine wrote: I too will drop $2 on the chance to win a billion*.

    *Billion dollars is not really the prize won.


    My luck they'll tell me I have to take it all in pennies and have to roll them up myself and turn them into the bank. :P


    Thats about 325,000 tons of pennies...:D
    I love watching their innocent little faces smiling happily as they trip gaily down the garden path, before finding the pit with the rusty spikes.
    9 years 3 months ago #11 by ~Archangel~
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    • Astrodragon wrote:

    Ib12us wrote:

    Valentine wrote: I too will drop $2 on the chance to win a billion*.

    *Billion dollars is not really the prize won.


    My luck they'll tell me I have to take it all in pennies and have to roll them up myself and turn them into the bank. :P


    Thats about 325,000 tons of pennies...:D


    Which works out roughly to $1,458,112,500,000 going by the value of copper on the London Metals Exchange, so you might want to get paid in pennies instead of those cheap paper money things. ;)
    Many people hear voices when no-one is there.
    Some are called 'mad' and shut up in rooms where they stare at the walls all day.
    Others are called 'writers' and they do pretty much the same thing.
    -Ray Bradbury
    9 years 3 months ago #12 by Valentine
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    • ~Archangel~ wrote:

    Astrodragon wrote:

    Ib12us wrote:

    Valentine wrote: I too will drop $2 on the chance to win a billion*.

    *Billion dollars is not really the prize won.


    My luck they'll tell me I have to take it all in pennies and have to roll them up myself and turn them into the bank. :P


    Thats about 325,000 tons of pennies...:D


    Which works out roughly to $1,458,112,500,000 going by the value of copper on the London Metals Exchange, so you might want to get paid in pennies instead of those cheap paper money things. ;)


    I hate to burst your bubble, but modern pennies are only 2.5% copper, so that 325,000 tons is only about 8,000 tons at $2/lb. Pre 1982 pennies were 95% copper.
    Don't Drick and Drive.
    9 years 3 months ago - 9 years 3 months ago #13 by Kristin Darken
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    • Oh, absolutely on the financial adviser stuff. In fact, my plan would probably be to look for a financial adviser in Sacramento and hire them to advise me on the best financial adviser to hire.
    Fate guard you and grant you a Light to brighten your Way.
    Last Edit: 9 years 3 months ago by Kristin Darken.
    9 years 3 months ago #14 by E M Pisek
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    • Kristin Darken wrote: Oh, absolutely on the financial adviser stuff. In fact, my plan would probably be to look for a financial adviser in Sacramento and hire them to advise me on the best financial adviser to hire.


    :woohoo: :evil:
    What is - was. What was - is.
    9 years 3 months ago #15 by sam105
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    • A very good tax attorney or at this amount law firm should also be in the mix. Spending thousands for advice could save millions in taxes.
    9 years 3 months ago #16 by ~Archangel~
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    • Valentine wrote:

    ~Archangel~ wrote:

    Astrodragon wrote:

    Ib12us wrote:

    Valentine wrote: I too will drop $2 on the chance to win a billion*.

    *Billion dollars is not really the prize won.


    My luck they'll tell me I have to take it all in pennies and have to roll them up myself and turn them into the bank. :P


    Thats about 325,000 tons of pennies...:D


    Which works out roughly to $1,458,112,500,000 going by the value of copper on the London Metals Exchange, so you might want to get paid in pennies instead of those cheap paper money things. ;)


    I hate to burst your bubble, but modern pennies are only 2.5% copper, so that 325,000 tons is only about 8,000 tons at $2/lb. Pre 1982 pennies were 95% copper.


    I stand corrected then. I remember using pennies when they where near pure copper.
    Many people hear voices when no-one is there.
    Some are called 'mad' and shut up in rooms where they stare at the walls all day.
    Others are called 'writers' and they do pretty much the same thing.
    -Ray Bradbury
    9 years 3 months ago #17 by Valentine
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    • ~Archangel~ wrote:

    Valentine wrote:

    ~Archangel~ wrote:

    Astrodragon wrote:

    Ib12us wrote:

    Valentine wrote: I too will drop $2 on the chance to win a billion*.

    *Billion dollars is not really the prize won.


    My luck they'll tell me I have to take it all in pennies and have to roll them up myself and turn them into the bank. :P


    Thats about 325,000 tons of pennies...:D


    Which works out roughly to $1,458,112,500,000 going by the value of copper on the London Metals Exchange, so you might want to get paid in pennies instead of those cheap paper money things. ;)


    I hate to burst your bubble, but modern pennies are only 2.5% copper, so that 325,000 tons is only about 8,000 tons at $2/lb. Pre 1982 pennies were 95% copper.


    I stand corrected then. I remember using pennies when they where near pure copper.


    And the zinc is only worth about $42.5 million. (Not that I would turn down that amount.)
    Don't Drick and Drive.
    9 years 3 months ago #18 by mittfh
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    • Reading up on the Powerball (since I'm from the UK so am unfamiliar with how lotteries elsewhere in the world operate), apparently Powerball is an almost US-wide lottery that consists of a main draw (69 choose 5) and a powerball draw (26 choose 1), which works out at a staggering 1 in 292,201,338 chance of winning the jackpot (which is probably also why it's rolled over so many times).

    However, the lower level prizes (all fixed payouts) reduce the probability of winning anything to just under 1 in 25, so it's likely regular players will win something at least once a year, and likely know someone who's won something a bit more frequently.

    To persuade even more people to part with their money, apparently the operators have introduced something called "Power play", in which for an extra $1, lower level prizes are multiplied by between 2x and 10x (depending on a third draw).

    -oOo-

    And there I was thinking Euromillions had ridiculously low odds (1 in 116,531,800 - 50 C 5 + 11 C 9) - however it has a jackpot prize cap of €190m and if the jackpot hasn't been won within two draws after reaching the cap, the prize money is distributed down to the next tier of winners.
    As the right side of the brain controls the left side of the body, then only left-handers are in their right mind!
    9 years 3 months ago #19 by Kristin Darken
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    • A similar lottery called "Megamillions" has awarded somewhere between 500-600 million a while back... that's the largest to date. So clearly, this is very likely to be a new record.

    And yes, there are 'lesser' prizes, but the value drops off very fast. 5 + power ball will split the grand total... 1.3 billion. 5 without the power ball will only award around a million. 4/5 will get 30k or so...

    Any way you look at it, the odds are ridiculously against. But then, 'someone' will win. It'd be awesome if that someone were me. It'd be amazing if it were someone who reads and wanted to help out some Whateley people. It'd be seriously cool if it was someone I know. But any way you look at it, someone is going to put down one set of burdens and replace it with another very different set. Whoever it is, I wish them luck. :)
    Fate guard you and grant you a Light to brighten your Way.
    9 years 3 months ago #20 by annachie
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    • According to a news program I saw the best way to win is take all your money and buy tickets.
    lots of tickets.
    9 years 3 months ago #21 by rubberjohn
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    • Unfortunately Lotteries follow the universal rule of gambling - The only winner is the house.

    John.
    9 years 3 months ago #22 by Kristin Darken
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    • Considering a lot of the California Powerball money goes into the state Dept of Education budget... that's not necessarily a bad thing.
    Fate guard you and grant you a Light to brighten your Way.
    9 years 3 months ago #23 by Sir Lee
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    • It's arguable. There was a "Last Week Tonight" episode where they looked into lotteries. Basically, what they found out is that lotteries don't increase education budget -- any gains from the lottery are lost by the state reducing the tax-originated revenue earmarked for education.

    To put it another way:
    - Before the lottery: state spent 10 billion/year from the tax income on education.
    - After the lottery: state gets 8 billion from lottery and adds 2 billion from the tax revenue.

    Meaning: education still got the same amount of money, but now there are 8 billion available for other stuff. So the 8 billion from the lottery end up being used for other things.
    Don't call me "Shirley." You will surely make me surly.
    9 years 3 months ago #24 by Domoviye
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    • annachie wrote: According to a news program I saw the best way to win is take all your money and buy tickets.
    lots of tickets.

    I watched part of a documentary years ago about a millionaire who did this.
    He spent 11 million dollars had hundreds of people buying and handing in tickets, and filled in every possible combination of numbers. He almost lost it all when there was a problem with ten thousand tickets in one location.
    In the end he won and made a profit of about 20 million.
    So if you're a millionaire with dozens of agents and money to burn, yest taking all your cash will win.

    Of course there was a guy my Dad knew, who was desperate for cash. Got a mortgage on his home, begged and borrowed as much money as he could and bought over a 100K worth of lottery tickets (this was in the 70's), and won maybe a few thousand dollars.
    9 years 3 months ago #25 by Kristin Darken
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    • There are 292.2 million possible ticket combinations... so yes, you could indeed (in theory), buy all the tickets and earn a small profit (930 million is the current cash payout, you only get the 1.5 billion if you take it as annuities... the draw on Saturday was only 490 million or so cash payout). And remember, you'd have to pay taxes on that... so even Saturday's draw might not have been high enough to be a profit... after taxes a 490 million win might only be 250 million in cash (about a 50 million dollar loss). This draw is probably high enough for it to be a 'sure thing'... except... in buying 292 million tickets... what if you missed one? Would it even be possible to buy that many tickets in the three or four days between drawings?
    Fate guard you and grant you a Light to brighten your Way.
    9 years 3 months ago #26 by Domoviye
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    • The guy had dozens of people working for him, possibly hundreds, and they were spread out over a lot of cities. Which caused problems when one place wouldn't accept so many ticket purchases. It's not really a sure thing though, I think the person was doing it to see if it was possible and because he could likely make a tidy profit.
    9 years 3 months ago #27 by elrodw
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    • And if two or three other people won, you'd be screwed. It's a huge gamble - which is why I only buy a ticket if the prize is big AND I have spare change in my pocket.
    Never give up, Never surrender! Captain Peter Quincy Taggert
    9 years 3 months ago #28 by mittfh
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    • Of course, if you're buying every possible combination of tickets, you're also going to have tickets winning all the lower tier prizes as well.
    However, even for the original rules UK National Lottery (49 C 6 = 13,983,816 combinations), purchasing that quantity of tickets would be one heck of a logistical challenge.

    At least with the Powerball, where the prize for each tier is fixed, you can calculate your likely profit margin; whereas the UKNL has prize levels set as a percentage of the prize pool (i.e. what's left after taxes, 'good causes' donations, administration fees and profits for both the retailers and the operators).

    Fun fact: Camelot PLC, which operates the UKNL, is owned by Ontario Teacher's Pension Plan - so UK gamblers are indirectly helping to pay the pensions of Canadian teachers...
    As the right side of the brain controls the left side of the body, then only left-handers are in their right mind!
    9 years 3 months ago #29 by Kristin Darken
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    • Ya. even if you were guaranteed to win and the full prize would be enough to keep it a profit, there's no certainty you'd get the full prize. and then you're talking major losses... unnecessary ones considering for a billion dollars you could build a casino and be the house with guaranteed winnings. :)
    Fate guard you and grant you a Light to brighten your Way.
    9 years 3 months ago #30 by Valentine
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    • Kristin Darken wrote: Ya. even if you were guaranteed to win and the full prize would be enough to keep it a profit, there's no certainty you'd get the full prize. and then you're talking major losses... unnecessary ones considering for a billion dollars you could build a casino and be the house with guaranteed winnings. :)


    And if you have $300 mill in cash, likely someone will loan you enough to build that casino.
    Don't Drick and Drive.
    9 years 3 months ago #31 by Kristin Darken
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    • Well, no 1.5 billion dollars for me. Sounds like it went to three tickets... so a half a billion each, 250-300 million if they take it up front instead of annuities... 125-150 million after taxes, probably. Nice to dream for a week or two though. You should hear the specs on the theatre building/company my co-workers and I came up with over the past week or so. Of course, we might have gone a little overboard. A 150 million dollar prize wouldn't pay for it... :)
    Fate guard you and grant you a Light to brighten your Way.
    9 years 3 months ago #32 by Nagrij
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    • lmao. The winners all came from states with no state taxes (or no state tax for lottery winners) so that's 192 million if they take it up front. I know I would.
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    9 years 3 months ago #33 by Sir Lee
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    • You know, just yesterday I read an article on a business-oriented website (Forbes? The Economist? WSJ? I forget...) arguing that the annuity is the better deal, UNLESS you think there is a fairly big chance of you kicking the bucket in the next few years.

    The argument went like this: when you factor in taxes, the annuity pays better than most forms of investment as low-risk as it. Also, it protects you from (a) your leeching acquaintances, since there's less money to leech in the first place, and (b) your own foolishness, since even if you manage to burn completely through the first annuity, next year you get another one.

    Oh... the argument about being near-death? Nothing to do with the urban legend claim that "if you die, the annuities stop." Not so; the annuities become part of your estate. The problem is that your heirs are supposed to pay inheritance taxes for the *entire balance* of the annuities, which can be a lot of money early on (and there's less liquid cash to pay the taxes with also).
    Don't call me "Shirley." You will surely make me surly.
    9 years 3 months ago #34 by Jarjaross
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    • Not all, and not every do, annuities keep going once you have died, trust me I have accountant parents who have looked into it. The lotteries that my parents have looked at do stop giving out the money if you die, something to do with being in a single persons name.
    My dreams take me to far off lands and times of distant past and future. They tell what has been done, what will happen and who I am. They show me things beyond the machinations of any man. Tell me, what are dreams to you?
    9 years 3 months ago #35 by elrodw
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    • Unless there's absolutely a guarantee that any federal or state tax hike can't hit the annuity income, then it's HIGH RISK as long as Congress is in session. What happens if they up the 'millionaire' tax to 75% next year, instead of the roughly 40% it is now?
    Never give up, Never surrender! Captain Peter Quincy Taggert
    9 years 3 months ago #36 by lighttech
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    • I would take the lump sum

    spread it over lots of investments, via good investment groups --AKA several --don't put those eggs in one basket!--you should get from 6% per year to a best of 10% with little risk

    then leave the USA! for a nation with LESS taxes--- and get rid of that general hate of other nations SEEING my USA passport!
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    9 years 3 months ago #37 by Valentine
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    • Sir Lee wrote: You know, just yesterday I read an article on a business-oriented website (Forbes? The Economist? WSJ? I forget...) arguing that the annuity is the better deal, UNLESS you think there is a fairly big chance of you kicking the bucket in the next few years.

    The argument went like this: when you factor in taxes, the annuity pays better than most forms of investment as low-risk as it. Also, it protects you from (a) your leeching acquaintances, since there's less money to leech in the first place, and (b) your own foolishness, since even if you manage to burn completely through the first annuity, next year you get another one.

    Oh... the argument about being near-death? Nothing to do with the urban legend claim that "if you die, the annuities stop." Not so; the annuities become part of your estate. The problem is that your heirs are supposed to pay inheritance taxes for the *entire balance* of the annuities, which can be a lot of money early on (and there's less liquid cash to pay the taxes with also).


    You do have to be careful, the Texas Lottery used to be written in such a way that only the winner could collect the prize. It was nontransferable and noninheritable. That may have changed, I remember a lawsuit after a winner had died about halfway through the payments.
    Don't Drick and Drive.
    9 years 3 months ago #38 by Ginncaster5
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    • It's been won? Finally.

    Though I have to admit, it amuses me to see people freaking out about what to get themselves and stuff. I really do wonder, how the frick do you spend that much money?!?!? I wouldn't know what to do with it all, other than pretty much fund the entire current set of children in the Christian Children's Fund (it's just the first one I thought of) and maybe a couple of other charities and save about 10-15 mil for a safety net. Though if I won now, I'd offer to help this trans person I know with anything she needs (she's currently waffling on the surgery stuff, even though more and more is covered by healthcare, it can still get expensive, and she's in her 60s, I think, so there's risk there too). I'd offer to help Kristen out, but, well, Kristen, haven't you basically said you're too worried about a bunch of stuff to do that?

    Anyways, main wonder is how one person can need all that money. Or even use it.
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